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《Science，8月28日，Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-09-02

  • Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions

    View ORCID ProfileSheikh Taslim Ali1,*, View ORCID ProfileLin Wang2,3,*, View ORCID ProfileEric H. Y. Lau1,*, View ORCID ProfileXiao-Ke Xu4, View ORCID ProfileZhanwei Du5, View ORCID ProfileYe Wu6,7, Gabriel M. Leung1, View ORCID ProfileBenjamin J. Cowling1,†

    See all authors and affiliations

    Science 28 Aug 2020:

    Vol. 369, Issue 6507, pp. 1106-1109

    DOI: 10.1126/science.abc9004

    Abstract

    Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions—i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain—and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures.

  • 原文来源：https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6507/1106
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