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《Science，9月21日，Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-10-13

  • Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years
    View ORCID ProfileChadi M. Saad-Roy1,*, View ORCID ProfileCaroline E. Wagner2,3,4,*, View ORCID ProfileRachel E. Baker2,3, View ORCID ProfileSinead E. Morris5, View ORCID ProfileJeremy Farrar6, View ORCID ProfileAndrea L. Graham2, View ORCID ProfileSimon A. Levin2, View ORCID ProfileMichael J. Mina7, View ORCID ProfileC. Jessica E. Metcalf2,8, View ORCID ProfileBryan T. Grenfell2,8,9,†
    See all authors and affiliations

    Science  21 Sep 2020:
    eabd7343
    DOI: 10.1126/science.abd7343

    Abstract
    The future trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic hinges on the dynamics of adaptive immunity against SARS-CoV2; however, salient features of the immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future Covid-19 cases given different protective efficacy and duration of the adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2, as well as its interaction with vaccines and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that variations in the immune response to primary SARS-CoV-2 infections and a potential vaccine can lead to dramatically different immune landscapes and burdens of critically severe cases, ranging from sustained epidemics to near elimination. Our findings illustrate likely complexities in future Covid-19 dynamics, and highlight the importance of immunological characterization beyond the measurement of active infections for adequately projecting the immune landscape generated by SARS-CoV-2 infections.

  • 原文来源：https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/18/science.abd7343
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