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《MedRxiv，2月23日，The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-24

  • The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases

    Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Xiaoke Xu, Ye Wu, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452

    Abstract

    As a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to emerge throughout China and threaten the globe, its transmission characteristics remain uncertain. Here, we analyze the serial intervals-the time period between the onset of symptoms in an index (infector) case and the onset of symptoms in a secondary (infectee) case-of 468 infector-infectee pairs with confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by health departments in 18 Chinese provinces between January 21, 2020, and February 8, 2020. The reported serial intervals range from -11 days to 20 days, with a mean of 3.96 days (95% confidence interval: 3.53-4.39), a standard deviation of 4.75 days (95% confidence interval: 4.46-5.07), and 12.1% of reports indicating pre-symptomatic transmission.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452v1
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  • 《MedRxiv，3月6日，The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-03-07
    • The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases Zhanwei Du, Xiaoke Xu, Ye Wu, Lin Wang, Benjamin J Cowling, View ORCID ProfileLauren Ancel Meyers doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452 Abstract As a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to emerge throughout China and threaten the globe, its transmission characteristics remain uncertain. Here, we analyze the serial intervals-the time period between the onset of symptoms in an index (infector) case and the onset of symptoms in a secondary (infectee) case-of 468 infector-infectee pairs with confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by health departments in 18 Chinese provinces between January 21, 2020, and February 8, 2020. The reported serial intervals range from -11 days to 20 days, with a mean of 3.96 days (95% confidence interval: 3.53-4.39), a standard deviation of 4.75 days (95% confidence interval: 4.46-5.07), and 12.1% of reports indicating pre-symptomatic transmission. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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  • 《MedRixv，2月25日，Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-26
    • Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020 Shi Zhao, Daozhou Gao, Zian Zhuang, Marc Chong, Yongli Cai, Jinjun Ran, Peihua Cao, Kai Wang, Yijun Lou, Weiming Wang, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie Wang doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026559 Abstract Backgrounds: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong and estimated the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. Methods: Index cases were identified and reported after symptoms onset, and contact tracing was conducted to collect the data of the associated secondary cases. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit a Gamma distribution function to govern the SI of COVID-19. Findings: Assuming a Gamma distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9−6.7) and SD of SI at 3.0 days (95%CI: 1.8−5.8) by using the information of all 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong. Conclusion: The SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are recommended in combating the COVID-19 outbreak. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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