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《MedRixv，3月3日，（第2版更新）Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-04

  • Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

    Richard A Neher, Robert Dyrdak, Valentin Druelle, Emma B Hodcroft, Jan Albert

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806

    Abstract

    A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 80,000 confirmed infections and 2,700 fatalities (as of Feb 27, 2020). Imported cases and transmission clusters of various sizes have been reported globally suggesting a pandemic is likely. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterize our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806v2
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