Impact of seasonal forcing on a potential SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Richard A Neher, Robert Dyrdak, Valentin Druelle, Emma B Hodcroft, Jan Albert
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806
Abstract
A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing over 45,000 PCR confirmed infections and more than 1,000 fatalities (as of Feb 12, 2020). Imported cases and small transmission clusters have been reported globally. Early data suggest the virus transmits readily and a pandemic cannot be ruled out. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43). We use these data to explore the effect of seasonal variation in transmissibility on a potential SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A model allowing for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters of SARS-CoV-2 spread shows how a pandemic could unfold in 2020-2022. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a peak in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere in winter 2020/2021. A smaller range of parameters suggests a peak in the first half of 2020 or two peaks of similar magnitude. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.
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