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《LANCET，3月11日，Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-12

  • Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

    Adam J Kucharski, PhD

    Timothy W Russell, PhD

    Charlie Diamond, MSc

    Yang Liu, PhD

    John Edmunds, PhD

    Sebastian Funk, PhD

    et al.

    Open AccessPublished:March 11, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4

    Summary

    Background

    An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95?333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model of severe SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December, 2019, and February, 2020. We used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases were introduced.

  • 原文来源：https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext
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