Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019-nCOV outbreak in Hubei Province, China
Lizhe Ai
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.20019828
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
As of 8am 30th January (Beijing Time) 2020, Approximate 8000 cases across the world have been confirmed. It's necessary to simulate epidemic trend of the 2019-nCOV outbreak in Hubei Province, the hardest-hit area. By SEIR simulation, the predicted epidemic peak in Hubei will be within 28th January 2020 to 7th February 2020, up to 7000-9000 infectious cases in total. The estimate above was based on some assumptions and limitations exited.
