《Nature,2月10日,Daily briefing: Pangolins suspected as source of coronavirus 2019-nCoV》

  • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者: xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间:2020-02-11
  • Pangolins suspected as vector of coronavirus

    • Parasitologists have suggested that pangolins spread the 2019-nCoV coronavirus to humans — although the research is yet to be published in full. Two researchers from the South China Agricultural University in Guangzhou say that coronaviruses present in pangolins are genetically similar to 2019-nCoV. Scientists have already suggested that the virus originated in bats, then probably transmitted to humans through another animal.

    • The death toll in China from 2019-nCoV has surpassed that from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). More than 900 people in China have died from the new virus. SARS, which also originated in China, killed 774 people worldwide in the 2002–03 epidemic.

  • 原文来源:https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00387-9
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    • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者:xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间:2020-02-14
    • The Evolution of Quarantined and Suspected Cases Determines the Final Trend of the 2019-nCoV Epidemics Based on Multi-Source Data Analyses 26 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2020 Biao Tang Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences; York University - Department of Mathematics and Statistics Fan Xia Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences Sanyi Tang Shaanxi Normal University - School of Mathematics and Information Science Nicola Luigi Bragazzi York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Qian Li York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Xiaodan Sun Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences Juhua Liang Shaanxi Normal University - School of Mathematics and Information Science Yanni Xiao Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences; Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - School of Mathematics and Statistics Jianhong Wu Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences; York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics; York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Abstract Background: Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult. Methods: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases. Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. Findings: The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Interpretation: Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. Further, uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.
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    • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者:xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间:2020-02-14
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