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《SSRN，2月13日，The Evolution of Quarantined and Suspected Cases Determines the Final Trend of the 2019-nCoV Epidemics Based on Multi-Source Data Analyses》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-14

  • The Evolution of Quarantined and Suspected Cases Determines the Final Trend of the 2019-nCoV Epidemics Based on Multi-Source Data Analyses

    26 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2020

    Biao Tang

    Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences; York University - Department of Mathematics and Statistics

    Fan Xia

    Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences

    Sanyi Tang

    Shaanxi Normal University - School of Mathematics and Information Science

    Nicola Luigi Bragazzi

    York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

    Qian Li

    York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

    Xiaodan Sun

    Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences

    Juhua Liang

    Shaanxi Normal University - School of Mathematics and Information Science

    Yanni Xiao

    Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences; Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - School of Mathematics and Statistics

    Jianhong Wu

    Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences; York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics; York University - Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

    Abstract

    Background: Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult.

    Methods: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases. Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases.

    Findings: The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing.

    Interpretation: Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. Further, uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.

  • 原文来源：https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3537099
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