Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19
Jennifer Beam Dowd, Valentina Rotondi, Liliana Adriano, David M Brazel, Per Block, Xuejie Ding, Yan Liu, Melinda C Mills
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036293
Abstract
Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations.
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