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《MedRxiv，3月17日，Impact of the contact and exclusion rates on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-18

  • Impact of the contact and exclusion rates on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic

    Marek Kochanczyk, Frederic Grabowski, Tomasz Lipniacki

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485

    Abstract

    In March 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 originating from Wuhan, China, has become pandemic. Based on epidemic data from China we constructed and constrained a simple Susceptible-Infected-Infectious-Excluded (SIIE) model. The model is characterized by only three parameters: average incubation period, contact rate rC, and exclusion rate rE. These two rates control the daily multiplication coefficient β describing epidemic growth in its early exponential phase, during which the number of excluded (confirmed) individuals grows as E = E0 exp(α,t) with α = lnβ. The rates can be modified by non-therapeutic interventions: rC can be reduced by quarantine, while rE can be increased by efficient testing, enabling isolation of infectious individuals.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485v1
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