Development of a novel risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19
Ying X. Gue, Maria Tennyson, Jovia Gao, Shuhui Ren, Rahim Kanji & Diana A. Gorog
Scientific Reports volume 10, Article number: 21379 (2020)
Abstract
Patients hospitalised with COVID-19 have a high mortality. Identification of patients at increased risk of adverse outcome would be important, to allow closer observation and earlier medical intervention for those at risk, and to objectively guide prognosis for friends and family of affected individuals. We conducted a single-centre retrospective cohort study in all-comers with COVID-19 admitted to a large general hospital in the United Kingdom. Clinical characteristics and features on admission, including observations, haematological and biochemical characteristics, were used to develop a score to predict 30-day mortality, using multivariable logistic regression. We identified 316 patients, of whom 46% died within 30-days. We developed a mortality score incorporating age, sex, platelet count, international normalised ratio, and observations on admission including the Glasgow Coma Scale, respiratory rate and blood pressure.