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《MedRxiv，2月17日，Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： dingxq
  • 发布时间：2020-02-18

  • Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)

    Asami Anzai, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Natalie M. Linton, Ryo Kinoshita, Katsuma Hayashi, Ayako Suzuki, Yichi Yang, Sungmok Jung, Takeshi Miyama, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Hiroshi Nishiura

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022897

    Abstract

    The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86, 449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022897v1
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