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《SSRN，2月21日，Statistical Estimate of Epidemic Trend, Suggestions and Lessons for Public Safety from the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-22

  • Statistical Estimate of Epidemic Trend, Suggestions and Lessons for Public Safety from the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

    26 Pages Posted: 21 Feb 2020

    Longjun Dong

    Central South University - Safety & Security Theory Innovation and Promotion Center (STIPC)

    Yihan Zhang

    Central South University - Safety & Security Theory Innovation and Promotion Center (STIPC)

    Abstract

    Background: The central Chinese city of Wuhan has reported the first case of unexplained pneumonia on early of December 2019, then recorded outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) since December 31, 2019. Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to public health and safety. Here, we provide an estimate of epidemic trend in Hubei and all of the China on the basis of the fitted models of confirmed cases and learn lessons for the prevention and control measures to the future similar outbreak, accounting for the prevention interventions of enterprises, governments and people, as well as social economy and public safety.

  • 原文来源：https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3539660
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