BCG protects against COVID-19? A word of caution
Reka Szigeti, Domos Kellermayer, View ORCID ProfileRichard Kellermayer
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20056903
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by type 2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), puts all of us to the test. Epidemiologic observations could critically aid the development of protective measures to combat this devastating viral outbreak. A recent publication, linked nation based universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination to potential protection against morbidity and mortality from SARS-CoV-2, and received much attention in public media, even before its peer review. We wished to validate the findings by examining the association between daily rates of COVID-19 case fatality (i.e. Death Per Case /Days of the endemic [dpc/d]) and the presence of universal BCG vaccination before 1980, or the year of the establishment of universal vaccination. There was no significant association in either analysis. In this work we emphasize caution amidst the publication surge on COVID-19, and highlight the political/economical-, arbitrary selection-, and fear/anxiety related biases, which may obscure scientific rigor. It is underscored that physical (social) distancing (i.e. quarantine) and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) are the only epidemiologic measures (Iceland being a great example, where universal BCG vaccination policy was never in place), which consistently associate with successful counteraction of morbidity and mortality during the pandemic.
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