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《MedRxiv，3月13日，Effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing for containment and slowing down a COVID-19 epidemic: a modelling study》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-14

  • Effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing for containment and slowing down a COVID-19 epidemic: a modelling study

    Mirjam E Kretzschmar, Ganna Rozhnova, Michiel E van Boven

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033738

    Abstract

    Background: Novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is extending its range of transmission in all parts of the world, with substantial variation in rates of transmission and severity of associated disease. Methods: We evaluated whether and under which conditions it is possible to control and slow down a COVID-19 epidemic in the early stages by isolation and contact tracing. We used a stochastic transmission model in which every person generates novel infections according to a probability distribution that is affected by the incubation period distribution (time from infection to symptoms), distribution of the latent period (time from infection to a person becoming infectious), and overall transmissibility.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033738v1
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  • 《LANCET，6月16日，Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-06-19
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