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《 MedRixv，2月27日，Estimate number of individuals infected with the 2019-novel coronavirus in South Korea due to the influx of international students from countries with virus risk: a simulation study》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-28

  • Estimate number of individuals infected with the 2019-novel coronavirus in South Korea due to the influx of international students from countries with virus risk: a simulation study

    Sukhyun Ryu,Sheikh Taslim Ali, Jun-sik Lim, Byung Chul Chun

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023234

    Abstract

    Background: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from the country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection will arrive in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in a home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods: To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and perform a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results: Under the home-quarantine program, the total number of the infected individuals would reach 24-53 from March 17-March 20, 50-86 from March 18-March 16, and 234-343 from March 4-March 23 with the arrival of 0.1%, 0.2%, and 1% of pre-infectious individuals, in Seoul, South Korea, respectively. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. Conclusion: To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine are warranted along with other containment policies.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023234v2
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    • 编译者：zhangmin
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