Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Severe Illness Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the Early Stage
Jingyuan Liu, Yao Liu, Pan Xiang, Lin Pu, Haofeng Xiong, Chuansheng Li, Ming Zhang, Jianbo Tan, Yanli Xu, Rui Song, Meihua Song, Lin Wang, Wei Zhang, Bing Han, Li Yang, Xiaojing Wang, Guiqin Zhou, Ting Zhang, Ben Li, Yanbin Wang, Zhihai Chen, Xianbo Wang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021584
Abstract
Background: Severe ill patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection progressed rapidly to acute respiratory failure. We aimed to select the most useful prognostic factor for severe illness incidence. Methods: The study prospectively included 61 patients with 2019-nCoV infection treated at Beijing Ditan Hospital from January 13, 2020 to January 31, 2020. Prognostic factor of severe illness was selected by the LASSO COX regression analyses, to predict the severe illness probability of 2019-CoV pneumonia. The predictive accuracy was evaluated by concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve and clinical impact curve. Results: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as the independent risk factor for severe illness in patients with 2019-nCoV infection. The NLR had a c-index of 0.807 (95% confidence interval, 0.676-0.38), the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision curve and clinical impact curve showed that the NLR had superior standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of severe illness was 9.1% in age ≥ 50 and NLR < 3.13 patients, and half of patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 would develop severe illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR with age, the study developed a 2019-nCoV pneumonia management process. Conclusions: The NLR was the early identification of risk factors for 2019-nCoV severe illness. Patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 facilitated severe illness, and they should rapidly access to intensive care unit if necessary.
*注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
