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《MedRxiv，3月24日，Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-25

  • Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

    Sergei Maslov, Nigel Goldenfeld

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.20.20040048

    Abstract

    We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these: (1) Will the ICU capacity in Chicago be exceeded, and if so by how much? (2) Can strong mitigation strategies, such as lockdown or shelter in place order, prevent the overflow of capacity? (3) When should such strategies be implemented? Our answers are as follows: (1) The ICU capacity may be exceeded by a large amount, probably by a factor of ten. (2) Strong mitigation can avert this emergency situation potentially, but even that will not work if implemented too late. (3) If the strong mitigation precedes April 1st, then the growth of COVID-19 can be controlled and the ICU capacity could be adequate. The earlier the strong mitigation is implemented, the greater the probability that it will be successful.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20040048v1
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    • 编译者：zhangmin
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