The effects of border control and quarantine measures on global spread of COVID-19
M. Pear Hossain, Alvin Junus, Xiaolin Zhu, Pengfei Jia, Tzai-Hung Wen, Dirk Pfeiffer, Hsiang-Yu Yuan
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035261
Abstract
The rapid expansion of coronavirus (COVID-19) has been observed in many parts of the world. Many newly reported cases of this new coronavirus during early outbreak phases have been associated with travel history from an epidemic region (identified as imported cases). For those cases without travel history, the risk of wider spreads through community contact is even higher. However, most population models assume a homogeneous infected population without considering that the imported and secondary cases contracted by the imported cases can pose a different risk to community spread. We have developed an “easy-to-use” mathematical framework extending from a meta-population model embedding city-to-city connections to stratify the dynamics of transmission waves caused by imported, secondary, and others from an outbreak source region when control measures are considered.
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