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《Science，5月1日，Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-05-01

  • Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

    Ruiyun Li1,*, Sen Pei2,*,†, Bin Chen3,*, Yimeng Song4, Tao Zhang5, Wan Yang6, Jeffrey Shaman2,†

    See all authors and affiliations

    Science 01 May 2020:

    Vol. 368, Issue 6490, pp. 489-493

    DOI: 10.1126/science.abb3221

    Abstract

    Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82–90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46–62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

  • 原文来源：https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/489
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  • 《MedRxiv，2月17日，Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：dingxq
    • 发布时间：2020-02-18
    • Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Ruiyun Li, Sen Pei, Bin Chen, Yimeng Song, Tao Zhang, Wan Yang, Jeffrey Shaman doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.14.20023127 Abstract Background Estimation of the fraction and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Many mild infections are typically not reported and, depending on their contagiousness, may support stealth transmission and the spread of documented infection. Methods Here we use observations of reported infection and spread within China in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with the emerging coronavirus, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. Results We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%-90%]) prior to the Wuhan travel shutdown (January 23, 2020). Per person, these undocumented infections were 52% as contagious as documented infections ([44%-69%]) and were the source of infection for two-thirds of documented cases. Our estimate of the reproductive number (2.23; [1.77-3.00]) aligns with earlier findings; however, after travel restrictions and control measures were imposed this number falls considerably. Conclusions A majority of COVID-19 infections were undocumented prior to implementation of control measures on January 23, and these undocumented infections substantially contributed to virus transmission. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of COVID-19 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging. Our findings also indicate that heightened awareness of the outbreak, increased use of personal protective measures, and travel restriction have been associated with reductions of the overall force of infection; however, it is unclear whether this reduction will be sufficient to stem the virus spread. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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  • 《Science，5月1日，SARS-CoV-2 productively infects human gut enterocytes》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-05-03
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