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《MedRixv，2月29日，Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-01

  • Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020

    Shi Zhao, Peihua Cao, Daozhou Gao, Zian Zhuang, Marc Chong, Yongli Cai, Jinjun Ran, Kai Wang, Yijun Lou, Weiming Wang, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449

    Abstract

    The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4). Through estimating the dispersion parameter which quantifies the superspreading events, we find that stochastic bursts were unlikely to occur if the reproduction number is less than 1. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0−9.3), thus timely action were crucial. The lesson learn on the ship is generally applicable in other settings

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449v1
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