《MedRixv,2月23日,ACP risk grade: a simple mortality index for patients with confirmed or suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease during the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan》

  • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者: zhangmin
  • 发布时间:2020-02-24
  • ACP risk grade: a simple mortality index for patients with confirmed or suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease (COVID-19) during the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan, China

    Jiatao Lu, Shufang Hu, Rong Fan, Zhihong Liu, Xueru Yin, Qiongya Wang, Qingquan Lv, Zhifang Cai, Haijun Li, Yuhai Hu, Ying Han, Hongping Hu, Wenyong Gao, Shibo Feng, Qiongfang Liu, Hui Li, Jian Sun, Jie Peng, Xuefeng Yi, Zixiao Zhou, Yabing Guo, Jinlin Hou

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025510

    Abstract

    Background: Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) outbreaks in Wuhan, China, healthcare systems capacities in highly endemic areas have been overwhelmed. Approaches to efficient management are urgently needed and key to a quicker control of the outbreaks and casualties. We aimed to characterize the clinical features of hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19, and develop a mortality risk index for COVID-19 patients. Methods: In this retrospective one-centre cohort study, we included all the confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a COVID-19-designated hospital from January 21 to February 5, 2020. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological and clinical outcome data were collected from the hospital information system, nursing records and laboratory reports. Results: Of 577 patients with at least one post-admission evaluation, the median age was 55 years (interquartile range [IQR], 39 - 66); 254 (44.0%) were men; 22.8% (100/438) were severe pneumonia on admission, and 37.7% (75/199) patients were SARS-CoV-2 positive. The clinical, laboratory and radiological data were comparable between positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 patients. During a median follow-up of 8.4 days (IQR, 5.8 - 12.0), 39 patients died with a 12-day cumulative mortality of 8.7% (95% CI, 5.9% to 11.5%). A simple mortality risk index (called ACP index), composed of Age and C-reactive Protein, was developed. By applying the ACP index, patients were categorized into three grades. The 12-day cumulative mortality in grade three (age ≥ 60 years and CRP ≥ 34 mg/L) was 33.2% (95% CI, 19.8% to 44.3%), which was significantly higher than those of grade two (age ≥ 60 years and CRP < 34 mg/L; age < 60 years and CRP ≥ 34 mg/L; 5.6% [95% CI, 0 to 11.3%]) and grade one (age < 60 years and CRP < 34 mg/L, 0%) (P <0.001), respectively. Conclusion: The ACP index can predict COVID-19 related short-term mortality, which may be a useful and convenient tool for quickly establishing a COVID-19 hierarchical management system that can greatly reduce the medical burden and therefore mortality in highly endemic areas.

    *注,本文为预印本论文手稿,是未经同行评审的初步报告,其观点仅供科研同行交流,并不是结论性内容,请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025510v1
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  • 《Virologica Sinica,2月14日,The First Disease X is Caused by a Highly Transmissible Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus》

    • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者:dingxq
    • 发布时间:2020-02-16
    • The First Disease X is Caused by a Highly Transmissible Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Shibo Jiang & Zheng-Li Shi DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12250-020-00206-5 Based on the announcement of the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018, the Wuhan pneumonia caused by an unknown etiology should be recognized as the first Disease X. Later, the pathogen was identified to be a novel coronavirus denoted 2019-nCoV, which has 79.5% and 96% whole genome sequence identify to SARS-CoV and bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV-RaTG13), respectively, suggesting its potential bat origin. With high human-to-human transmission rate (R0), 2019-nCoV has quickly spread in China and other countries, resulting in 34,953 confirmed cases and 725 deaths as of 8 February 2020, thus calling for urgent development of therapeutics and prophylactics. 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Jiang and colleagues recently suggested renaming NCIP as “pneumonia-associated respiratory syndrome (PARS)” and 2019-nCoV as “PARS coronavirus (PARS-CoV)” (Jiang et al.2020a, b) in order to retain terminology equivalent to that of SARS-CoV, which was based on the facts that (1) the novel coronavirus causing the pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan is rapidly becoming well known worldwide, (2) most patients suffer from pneumonia, (3) the pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV is much less severe than that caused by SARS-CoV, and (4) the case-fatality rate (CFR) of patients with 2019-nCoV infection is much lower than that of individuals with SARS-CoV infection. However, several experts in the coronavirus field have expressed their concern that the term PARS seems to exclude associated respiratory syndrome arising from other etiologies of pneumonia. 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This outbreak of 2019-nCoV infection has posed a serious threat to global public health, thus calling for the development of therapeutic and prophylactic strategies (Jiang et al.2020a, b). Based on the previous experience in the research and development of virus fusion inhibitors against HIV, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV (Jiang et al.1993; Liu et al. 2004; Lu et al. 2014), Jiang and colleagues have recently developed a pan-CoV fusion inhibitor, EK1 peptide, with potent inhibitory activity against infection by 5 human coronaviruses tested, including SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and 3 bat-SARSr-CoVs (Xia et al. 2019). EK1 peptide could protect hDPP4-transgenic mice or regular mice treated with EK1 via intranasal application before or after challenge with MERS-CoV or hCoV-OC43, respectively. 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    • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者:zhangmin
    • 发布时间:2020-02-24
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