登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRixv，2月11日，Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-12

  • Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

    Yang Yang, Qingbin Lu, Mingjin Liu, Yixing Wang, Anran Zhang, Neda Jalali, Natalie Dean, Ira Longini, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Bo Xu, Xiaoai Zhang, Liping Wang, Wei Liu, Liqun Fang

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675

    Abstract

    Background: The ongoing outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China has led to the declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. Methods: All 2019-nCoV infected patients reported to Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention up to 26 January 2020 were included for analysis. Disease and death incidence were compared between demographic groups and baseline conditions. Case fatality rates (CFRs) and the basic reproductive number R0 was estimated with a transmission model. Results: As of 26 January 2020, a total of 8866 patients including 4021 (45.35%) laboratory confirmed patients were reported from 30 provinces. Nearly half of the patients were aged 50 years or older (47.7%). There was a clear gender difference in incidence with 0.31 (male) vs. 0.27 (female) per 100,000 people (P<0.001). The median incubation period was 4.75 (interquartile range: 3.0-7.2) days. About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia, and non-pneumonia, respectively. The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%), but male patients, ≥60 years old, baseline diagnosis of severe pneumonia and delay in diagnosis were associated with substantially elevated CFR. The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05), ranging 2.23-4.82 in sensitivity analyses varying the incubation and infectious periods. Conclusions: Compared with SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV had comparable transmissibility and lower CFR. Our findings based on individual-level surveillance data emphasize the importance of early detection of elderly patients, particularly males, before symptoms progress to severe pneumonia.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1
77浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRixv，2月11日，Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-12
    • Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China Chong You, Yuhao Deng, Wenjie Hu, Jiarui Sun, Qiushi Lin, Feng Zhou, Cheng Heng Pang, Yuan Zhang, Zhengchao Chen, XIao-Hua Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253 Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 5, 2020, a total of 24433 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia associated with 2019-nCov were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Although the estimated controlled reproduction numbers R_c produced by all three methods in all different regions are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R_0, they are still greater than one. Conclusions: Although the controlled reproduction number is declining, it is still larger than one. Additional efforts are needed to further reduce the R_c to below one in order to end the current epidemic. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    202浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRixv，2月12日，Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 17 Hospitalized Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections Outside Wuhan, China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-13
    • Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 17 Hospitalized Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections Outside Wuhan, China Jie Li, Shilin Li, Yurui Cai, Qin Liu, Xue Li, Zhaoping Zeng, Yanpeng Chu, Fangcheng Zhu, Fanxin Zeng doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.11.20022053 Abstract An increasing number of cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) infected with 2019-nCoV have been identified in Wuhan and other cities in China, since December 2019. We analyzed data on the 17 confirmed cases in Dazhou to provide the epidemiologic characteristics of NCP outside Wuhan. Among them, 12 patients were still quarantined in the hospital, 5 patients were discharged NCP patients according to the national standards. Compared with non-discharged NCP patients, the discharged NCP patients had younger ages. Moreover, discharged NCP patients had higher heart rate, lymphocytes levels and monocytes levels than non-discharged NCP patients on admission to the hospital. Notably, all of 17 patients had abnormal increased C-reactive protein levels, and 16 patients had abnormal computed tomography images. This study provided some information that younger age, higher lymphocytes levels and monocytes levels at the diagnoses of 2019-nCoV may contributed to faster recovery and better therapeutic outcome. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    205浏览量
    原文链接