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《LANCET，5月12日，Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-05-13

  • Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

    Timothy Roberton, DrPH

    Emily D Carter, PhD

    Victoria B Chou, PhD

    Angela R Stegmuller, BS

    Bianca D Jackson, MSPH

    Yvonne Tam, MHS

    et al.

    Show all authors

    Open AccessPublished:May 12, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30229-1

    Summary

    Background

    While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food.

    Methods

    We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months.

  • 原文来源：https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30229-1/fulltext
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