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《MedRixv，4月12日，（第2版更新）Sustainable social distancing through facemask use and testing during the Covid-19 pandemic》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-04-14

  • Sustainable social distancing through facemask use and testing during the Covid-19 pandemic

    Diego Chowell, Gerardo Chowell, Kimberlyn Roosa, Ranu Dhillon, Devabhaktuni Srikrishna

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049981

    Abstract

    We investigate how individual protective behaviors, different levels of testing, and isolation influence the transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on an SEIR-type model incorporating asymptomatic but infectious individuals (40%), we show that the pandemic may be readily controllable through a combination of testing, treatment if necessary, and self-isolation after testing positive (TTI) of symptomatic individuals together with social protection (e.g., facemask use, handwashing). When the basic reproduction number, R0, is 2.4, 65% effective social protection alone (35% of the unprotected transmission) brings the R below 1. Alternatively, 20% effective social protection brings the reproduction number below 1.0 so long as 75% of the symptomatic population is covered by TTI within 12 hours of symptom onset. Even with 20% effective social protection, TTI of 1 in 4 symptomatic individuals can substantially 'flatten the curve' cutting the peak daily incidence in half.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049981v2
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