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《MedRixv，2月13日，Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-14

  • Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections

    Hiroshi Nishiura, Natalie M Linton, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497

    Abstract

    We estimated the serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections from 26 infector-infectee pairs. Accounting for right truncation, the median serial interval was estimated at 2.6 days and is shorter than estimates of the median incubation period, suggesting that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission occurs before illness onset.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497v1
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  • 《MedRxiv，2月17日，Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-18
    • Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections Hiroshi Nishiura, Natalie M Linton, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497 Abstract Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n=28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n=18). In addition, we adjusting for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. Results: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). Conclusions: The serial interval of COVID-19 is shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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  • 《MedRixv，2月11日，Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-12
    • Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China Chong You, Yuhao Deng, Wenjie Hu, Jiarui Sun, Qiushi Lin, Feng Zhou, Cheng Heng Pang, Yuan Zhang, Zhengchao Chen, XIao-Hua Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253 Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 5, 2020, a total of 24433 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia associated with 2019-nCov were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Although the estimated controlled reproduction numbers R_c produced by all three methods in all different regions are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R_0, they are still greater than one. Conclusions: Although the controlled reproduction number is declining, it is still larger than one. Additional efforts are needed to further reduce the R_c to below one in order to end the current epidemic. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
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