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《Nature，4月15日，Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-04-17

  • Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

    Xi He, Eric H. Y. Lau, Peng Wu, Xilong Deng, Jian Wang, Xinxin Hao, Yiu Chung Lau, Jessica Y. Wong, Yujuan Guan, Xinghua Tan, Xiaoneng Mo, Yanqing Chen, Baolin Liao, Weilie Chen, Fengyu Hu, Qing Zhang, Mingqiu Zhong, Yanrong Wu, Lingzhai Zhao, Fuchun Zhang, Benjamin J. Cowling, Fang Li & Gabriel M. Leung

    Nature Medicine (2020)Cite this article

    Published: 15 April 2020

    Abstract

    We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector–infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.

  • 原文来源：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
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    • 编译者：zhangmin
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  • 《Nature，7月16日，Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-07-28
    • Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan Xingjie Hao, Shanshan Cheng, Degang Wu, Tangchun Wu, Xihong Lin & Chaolong Wang Nature (2020) Abstract As countries in the world review interventions for containing the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), important lessons can be drawn from the study of the full transmission dynamics of its causative agent—severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)— in Wuhan (China), where vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the local outbreak of this disease1. Here we use a modelling approach to reconstruct the full-spectrum dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan between 1 January and 8 March 2020 across 5 periods defined by events and interventions, on the basis of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases1. Accounting for presymptomatic infectiousness2, time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates and population movements3, we identify two key features of the outbreak: high covertness and high transmissibility. We estimate 87% (lower bound, 53%) of the infections before 8 March 2020 were unascertained (potentially including asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic individuals); and a basic reproduction number (R0) of 3.54 (95% credible interval 3.40–3.67) in the early outbreak, much higher than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)4,5. We observe that multipronged interventions had considerable positive effects on controlling the outbreak, decreasing the reproduction number to 0.28 (95% credible interval 0.23–0.33) and—by projection—reducing the total infections in Wuhan by 96.0% as of 8 March 2020.
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