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《MedRixv，2月12日，Facemask shortage and the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-13

  • Facemask shortage and the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures

    Huailiang Wu, Jian Huang, Casper JP Zhang, Zonglin He, Wai-kit Ming

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.11.20020735

    Abstract

    Background To analyse the impact of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) outbreak on the facemask shortage in China and provide insight into the development of emergency plans for future infectious disease outbreaks. Methods Policy review using government websites and shortage analysis using mathematical modelling based on data obtained from the National Health Commission (NHC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the Peoples Republic of China. Findings Supplies of facemasks in the whole of China would have been sufficient for both the healthcare workers and the general population if the NCP outbreak only occurred in Hubei province. However, if the outbreak occurred in both Hubei and Guangdong provinces, facemask supplies in the whole of China could last for 34 days if no alternative public health intervention was introduced. There would be a shortage of 480 million facemasks by mid-February 2020. If the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, facemask supplies could only last for 16 days and the shortage would considerably worsen, with a shortage of 11.5 billion facemasks by mid-February 2020. Interpretation In light of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, insufficient medical resources (e.g., shortage of facemasks) can considerably compromise the efficacy of public health measures. An effective public health intervention should also consider the adequacy and affordability of existing medical resources. Global collaboration should be strengthened to prevent the development of a global pandemic from a regional epidemic via easing the medical resources crisis in the affected countries.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.11.20020735v1
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