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《MedRxiv，3月17日，Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-18

  • Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil

    Tarcisio M Rocha Filho, Fabiana S. Ganem dos Santos, Victor B Gomes, Thiago A.H. Rocha, Julio H.R. Croda, Walter M Ramalho, Wildo N Araujo

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.14.20035873

    Abstract

    In January 2020 China reported to the World Health Organization an outbreak of pneumonia of undetermined origin in the city of Wuhan, Hubei. In January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Interest (PHEI). Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the impact of a COVID-19 epidemic in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: We used a generalized SEIR (Susceptibles, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, with additional Hospitalized variables (SEIHR model) and age-stratified structure to analyze the expected time evolution during the onset of the epidemic in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo. The model allows to determine the evolution of the number of cases, the number of patients admitted to hospitals and deaths caused by COVID-19.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20035873v1
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