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《Nature，4月22日，Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-04-23

  • Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy

    Giulia Giordano, Franco Blanchini, Raffaele Bruno, Patrizio Colaneri, Alessandro Di Filippo, Angela Di Matteo & Marta Colaneri

    Nature Medicine (2020)

    Abstract

    In Italy, 128,948 confirmed cases and 15,887 deaths of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were registered as of 5 April 2020. Ending the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic requires implementation of multiple population-wide strategies, including social distancing, testing and contact tracing. We propose a new model that predicts the course of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy. The model considers eight stages of infection: susceptible (S), infected (I), diagnosed (D), ailing (A), recognized (R), threatened (T), healed (H) and extinct (E), collectively termed SIDARTHE.

  • 原文来源：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0883-7
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