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《MedRixv，2月11日，Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among passengers on evacuation flights》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-12

  • Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among passengers on evacuation flights

    Hiroshi Nishiura, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Takeshi Miyama, Ayako Suzuki, Sungmok Jung, Katsuma Hayashi, Ryo Kinoshita, Yichi Yang, Baoyin Yuan, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Natalie M Linton

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.03.20020248

    Abstract

    A total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China to Japan. All passengers were screened for symptoms and also undertook reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing, identifying 4 asymptomatic and 4 symptomatic passengers testing positive for 2019-nCoV. We show that the screening result is suggestive of the asymptomatic ratio at 50.0%.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.20020248v1
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  • 《J Clin Med，2月4日，The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-11
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  • 《J Clin Med , 2月4日，The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-09
    • The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights Hiroshi Nishiura 1 2 , Tetsuro Kobayashi 1 , Yichi Yang 1 , Katsuma Hayashi 1 , Takeshi Miyama 3 , Ryo Kinoshita 1 , Natalie M Linton 1 , Sung-Mok Jung 1 , Baoyin Yuan 1 , Ayako Suzuki 1 , Andrei R Akhmetzhanov 1 PMID: 32033064 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020419 Abstract From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.
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