《Nature,1月15日,The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate》

  • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者: zhangmin
  • 发布时间:2021-02-08
  • The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate
    Sebastian Contreras, Jonas Dehning, Matthias Loidolt, Johannes Zierenberg, F. Paul Spitzner, Jorge H. Urrea-Quintero, Sebastian B. Mohr, Michael Wilczek, Michael Wibral & Viola Priesemann
    Nature Communications volume 12, Article number: 378 (2021)

    Abstract
    Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, which strongly contribute to ”hidden" infection chains. Here, we study a semi-analytical model and identify two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number RHt of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigate how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.

  • 原文来源:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20699-8
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