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《MedRixv，2月23日，CoVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-24

  • CoVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?

    Nian Shao, Hanshuang Pan, Xingjie Li, Weijia Li, Shufen Wang, Yan Xuan, Yue Yan, Jiang Yu, Keji Liu, Yu Chen, Boxi Xu, Xinyue Luo, Christopher Y. Shen, Min Zhong, Xiang Xu, Xu Chen, Shuai Lu, Guanghong Ding, Jin Cheng, Wenbin Chen

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026070

    Abstract

    We adopt a novel statistical time delay dynamic model proposed in our recent work to estimate the evolution of COVID-19. Based on the cumulative number of confirmed cases and cured cases published daily by government, we effectively simulate and predict the outbreak trend of COVID-19 in different regions in China. Meanwhile, the model reveals the growth rate of the epidemic, through which the basic reproductive number is thus estimated to be 3.25 to 3.4. Then, we apply the model to track the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. We find that the trend of the epidemic in Japan is strikingly similar to that in Wuhan, China at the early stage. Therefore there are reasons to draw a serious concern that there could be a rapid outbreak in Japan if no effective control measures are carried out immediately. Finally, we make a prediction of the future trend of COVID-19 in Japan, and suggest an enhancement of control measures as soon as possible, so as to avoid a severe outbreak

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026070v1
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