Analysis of meteorological conditions and prediction of epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV infection in 2020
Jin Bu, Dong-Dong Peng, Hui Xiao, Qian Yue, Yan Han, Yu Lin, Gang Hu, Jing Chen
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022715
Abstract
Objective: To investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of 2019-nCoV infection, to predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against the new disease. Methods: The meteorological factors during the outbreak period of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan in 2019 were collected and analyzed, and were confirmed with those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China in 2003. Data of patients infected with 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus were collected from WHO website and other public sources. Results: This study found that the suitable temperature range for 2019-nCoV coronavirus survival is (13-24 degree Celsius), among which 19 degree Celsius lasting about 60 days is conducive to the spread between the vector and humans; the humidity range is 50%-80%, of which about 75% humidity is conducive to the survival of the coronavirus; the suitable precipitation range is below 30 mm/ month. Cold air and continuous low temperature over one week are helpful for the elimination of the virus. The prediction results show that with the approach of spring, the temperature in north China gradually rises, and the coronavirus spreads to middle and high latitudes along the temperature line of 13-18 degree Celsius. The population of new coronavirus infections is concentrated in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other urban agglomerations. Starting from May 2020, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the Central China Zhengzhou-Wuhan urban agglomeration, the eastern Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai urban agglomeration, and the southern Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration are all under a high temperature above 24 degree Celsius, which is not conducive to the survival and reproduction of coronaviruses, so the epidemic is expected to end. Conclusions: A wide range of continuous warm and dry weather is conducive to the survival of 2019-nCoV. The coming of spring, in addition to the original Wuhan-Zhengzhou urban agglomeration in central China, means that the prevention and control measures in big cities located in mid-latitude should be strengthened, especially the monitoring of transportation hubs. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is a concentrated area of population in south China, with a faster temperature rise than those in mid-high latitudes, and thus the prevention in this area should be prioritized. From a global perspective, cities with a mean temperature below 24 degree Celsius are all high-risk cities for 2019-nCoV transmission before June.
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