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《1月26日_2019-nCoV的传播动态》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： wangyb
  • 发布时间：2020-01-29

  • 【研究认为新型冠状病毒肺炎比SARS具有更高的大流行风险，需要加强严控遏制其进一步蔓延。】

    发表时间：2020年1月26日

    发表团队和机构：广东省疾病预防控制中心、广东省公共卫生研究所

    作者：Tao Liu, Jianxiong Hu, Min Kang, Lifeng Lin, Haojie Zhong, Jianpeng Xiao, Guanhao He, Tie Song, Qiong Huang, Zuhua Rong, Aiping Deng, Weilin Zeng, Xiaohua Tan, Siqing Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Jiansen Li, Donghua Wan, Jing Lu, Huihong Deng, Jianfeng He, Wenjun Ma

    文章主要内容如下：

    研究人员从医疗记录、流行病学调查或官方网站，收集了2020年1月23日前确诊的2019-nCoV病例数据，以及从广东省疾病预防控制中心收集了2002~2003年广东省SARS病例资料。利用指数增长（EG）和最大似然估计（ML），研究人员估算了2019-nCoV和SARS的繁殖数（R）。结果显示，截至2020年1月23日，中国共发现830例2019-nCoV确诊病例，境外报告9例。2019-nCoV感染的平均潜伏期为4.8天。2019-nCoV和SARS患者从出现症状到隔离的平均时间分别为2.9天和4.2天。

    通过EG和ML估计，2019-nCoV的R值分别为2.90（95％置信区间：2.32-3.63）和2.92（95％置信区间：2.28-3.67），而SARS-CoV的相应R值为1.77（95％ 置信区间：1.37-2.27）和1.85（95％置信区间：1.32-2.49）。

    研究人员还观察到从发病到隔离的时间呈下降趋势，2019-nCoV和SARS-CoV的R值也呈下降趋势。研究人员认为，2019-nCoV可能比2003年暴发的SARS具有更高的（全国或全球）大流行风险。但目前实施的公共卫生努力已显著降低了2019-nCoV的流行风险。然而，还需采取更加严格的控制和预防战略和措施，遏制其进一步蔓延。

  • 原文来源：https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1
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    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-13
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