Transmission and epidemiological characteristics of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-Infected Pneumonia(NCIP):preliminary evidence obtained in comparison with 2003-SARS
Rongqiang Zhang, Hui Liu, Fengying Li, Bei Zhang, Qiling Liu, Xiangwen Li, Limei Luo
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.20019836
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
[Abstract] Objectives Latest epidemic information of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-Infected Pneumonia (NCIP) was collected and a detailed statistical analysis was carried out to make comparison with 2003-SARS in order to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of 2019-nCoV. Methods The information of NCIP and 2003-SARS from websites of NHCPRC and the World Health Organization was collected, and then the transmission dynamics of the two kinds of infectious diseases were analyzed. The information of 287 confirmed NCIP patients obtained from the website of health committees of 16 provinces. A descriptive epidemiological analysis method was employed to carefully analyze the epidemic characteristics. Subsequently, the NCIP epidemic data in Wuhan and other inland regions of China was analyzed separately and compared. A multivariate function model was constructed based on the confirmed NCIP case data. Results The growth rate of new cases and deaths of NCIP were significantly faster than those of 2003-SARS. The number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and other inland areas both showed increasing trends. 287 confirmed NCIP cases aged 9 months to 90 years and the average age was (42.38 ±15.97) years. The gender ratio (M: F) was 1.35: 1. The numbers of NCIP patients in Wuhan and other inland areas were in line with Y=0.7209 x3-11.97x2+59.129x (R2=0.9858) and Y=2.2169 x3-39.74x2+158.88x (R2=0.9357)，respectively, with good fitting effects judging by their R2 values. Conclusions The fatality rate of NCIP is lower than that of 2003-SARS and the cure rate is higher. The age of NCIP patients is mainly concentrated in the 30-50 years old (68.29%). The harm of the first-generation NCIP patients is indeed higher than that of secondary cases.
