Certainty of success: three critical parameters in coronavirus vaccine development
David C. Kaslow
npj Vaccines volume 5, Article number: 42 (2020)
Abstract
Vaccines for 17 viral pathogens have been licensed for use in humans. Previously, two critical biological parameters of the pathogen and the host–pathogen interaction—incubation period and broadly protective, relative immunogenicity—were proposed to account for much of the past successes in vaccine development, and to be useful in estimating the “certainty of success” of developing an effective vaccine for viral pathogens for which a vaccine currently does not exist. In considering the “certainty of success” in development of human coronavirus vaccines, particularly SARS-CoV-2, a third, related critical parameter is proposed—infectious inoculum intensity, at an individual-level, and force of infection, at a population-level.
