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《MedRxiv，3月10日，（第2版更新）The Impact of Host-Based Early Warning on Disease Outbreaks》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-11

  • The Impact of Host-Based Early Warning on Disease Outbreaks

    Mark Hernandez, Lauren E Milechin, Shakti K Davis, Rich DeLaura, Kajal T Claypool, Albert Swiston

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.06.20029793

    Abstract

    Objective: The detection of communicable pathogens responsible for major outbreaks relies on health care professionals recognition of symptoms manifesting in infectious individuals. Early warning of such communicable diseases before the onset of symptoms could improve both patient care and public health responses. However, the potential impact of such a host-based early warning system on containing the spread of an outbreak and in steering public health response is unknown. Methods: We extend the deterministic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to simulate disease outbreak scenarios and to quantify the potential impact of a host-based early warning capability to mitigate pathogen transmission during an outbreak.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.06.20029793v2
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