登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRixv，2月5日，Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-06

  • Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model

    Slav W Hermanowicz

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020461

    Abstract

    Confirmed infection cases in mainland China were analyzed using the data up to January 28, 2020 (first 13 days of reliable confirmed cases). In addition, all available data up to February 3 were processed the same way. For the first period the cumulative number of cases followed an exponential function. However, from January 28, we discerned a downward deviation from the exponential growth. This slower-than-exponential growth was also confirmed by a steady decline of the effective reproduction number. A backtrend analysis suggested the original basic reproduction number R0 to be about 2.4 to 2.5. We used a simple logistic growth model that fitted very well with all data reported until the time of writing . Using this model and the first set of data, we estimate that the maximum cases will be about 21,000 reaching this level in mid-February. Using all available data the maximum number of cases is somewhat higher at 29,000 but its dynamics does not change. These predictions do not account for any possible other secondary sources of infection.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020461v1
15浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRixv，2月13日，Statistics based predictions of coronavirus 2019-nCoV spreading in mainland China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-14
    • Statistics based predictions of coronavirus 2019-nCoV spreading in mainland China Igor Nesteruk doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20021931 Abstract Background. The epidemic outbreak cased by coronavirus 2019-nCoV is of great interest to researches because of the high rate of spread of the infection and the significant number of fatalities. A detailed scientific analysis of the phenomenon is yet to come, but the public is already interested in the questions of the duration of the epidemic, the expected number of patients and deaths. For long time predictions, the complicated mathematical models are necessary which need many efforts for unknown parameters identification and calculations. In this article, some preliminary estimates will be presented. Objective. Since the reliable long time data are available only for mainland China, we will try to predict the epidemic characteristics only in this area. We will estimate some of the epidemic characteristics and present the most reliable dependences for victim numbers, infected and removed persons versus time. Methods. In this study we use the known SIR model for the dynamics of an epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear equations and statistical approach developed before for investigation of the children disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine) in 1988-1989. Results. The optimal values of the SIR model parameters were identified with the use of statistical approach. The numbers of infected, susceptible and removed persons versus time were predicted. Conclusions. Simple mathematical model was used to predict the characteristics of the epidemic caused by coronavirus 2019-nCoV in mainland China. The further research should focus on updating the predictions with the use of fresh data and using more complicated mathematical models. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    193浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRixv，2月11日，Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-12
    • Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China Chong You, Yuhao Deng, Wenjie Hu, Jiarui Sun, Qiushi Lin, Feng Zhou, Cheng Heng Pang, Yuan Zhang, Zhengchao Chen, XIao-Hua Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253 Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 5, 2020, a total of 24433 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia associated with 2019-nCov were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Although the estimated controlled reproduction numbers R_c produced by all three methods in all different regions are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R_0, they are still greater than one. Conclusions: Although the controlled reproduction number is declining, it is still larger than one. Additional efforts are needed to further reduce the R_c to below one in order to end the current epidemic. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    177浏览量
    原文链接