Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with 2019-nCoV
Billy Quilty, Sam Clifford, Stefan Flasche, Rosalind M Eggo
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019265
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
As the number of novel coronavirus cases grows both inside and outside of China, public health authorities require evidence on the effectiveness of control measures such as thermal screening of arrivals at airports. We evaluated the effectiveness of exit and entry screening for 2019-nCoV infection. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46.5% (95%CI: 35.9 to 57.7) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on the incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and the proportion of cases which are asymptomatic. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travellers. We developed an online tool so that results can be updated as new information becomes available.
