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《MedRixv，2月4日，The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-06

  • The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application

    Stephen A Lauer, Kyra H Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah Meredith, Andrew S Azman, Nicholas G Reich, Justin Lessler

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.02.20020016

    Abstract

    A novel human coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in China in December, 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period, which has important implications for surveillance and control activities. Here, we use data from public reports of 101 confirmed cases in 38 provinces, regions, and countries outside of Wuhan (Hubei province, China) with identifiable exposure windows and known dates of symptom onset to estimate the incubation period of 2019-nCoV. We estimate the median incubation period of 2019-nCoV to be 5.2 days (95% CI 4.4-6.0), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 10.5 days (95% CI: 7.3, 15.3) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 64 out of every 10,000 cases will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. Whether this risk is acceptable depends on the underlying risk of infection and consequences of missed cases. The estimates presented here can be used to inform policy in multiple contexts based on these judgments.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.02.20020016v1
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    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-12
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    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
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