登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRixv，2月25日，A Novel Method for the Estimation of a Dynamic Effective Reproduction Number (Dynamic-R) in the CoViD-19 Outbreak》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-02-26

  • A Novel Method for the Estimation of a Dynamic Effective Reproduction Number (Dynamic-R) in the CoViD-19 Outbreak

    Yi Chen Chong

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267

    Abstract

    The CoViD-19 outbreak has escalated to a pandemic in the last few weeks, with no signs of stopping. Pharmaceutical solutions based upon virologic studies, at this point, remain inconclusive. In contrast, this paper looks towards epidemiological models during this phase of viral growth, in particular, by providing a responsive, timely model of the R value based on the previous few days' results. Such an R value, although bearing less statistical precision due to limited sampling, could allow R to become a more effective, responsive standalone measure of infectious transmission. It demonstrates that the R value can be used as a dynamic, time-dependent indicator without the use of curve-fitting, and also estimates the most recent R-value of the CoViD-19 outbreak to be about 4.29, based on the data from the previous 3 days.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267v1
11浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRxiv，2月17日，Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：dingxq
    • 发布时间：2020-02-18
    • Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China Chong You, Yuhao Deng, Wenjie Hu, Jiarui Sun, Qiushi Lin, Feng Zhou, Cheng Heng Pang, Yuan Zhang, Zhengchao Chen, Xiao-Hua Zhou doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253 Abstract Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 11, 2020, a total of 44730 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia associated with COVID-19 were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Conclusions: The controlled reproduction number is declining. It is lower than one in most regions of China, but is still larger than one in Hubei Province. Sustained efforts are needed to further reduce the Rc to below one in order to end the current epidemic. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    121浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRixv，3月3日，The spatiotemporal estimation of the dynamic risk and the international transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak: A global perspective》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-03-04
    • The spatiotemporal estimation of the dynamic risk and the international transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak: A global perspective Yuan-Chien Lin, Wan-Ju Chi, Yu-Ting Lin, Chun-Yeh Lai doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.29.20029413 Abstract An ongoing novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia infection outbreak called COVID-19 started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. It both spread rapidly to all provinces in China and started spreading around the world quickly through international human movement from January 2020. Currently, the spatiotemporal epidemic transmission patterns, prediction models, and possible risk analysis for the future are insufficient for COVID-19 but we urgently need relevant information, particularly from the global perspective. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    58浏览量
    原文链接