《WoodMac预测澳大利亚将无法实现82%可再生能源的目标》

  • 来源专题:能源情报网监测服务平台
  • 编译者: 郭楷模
  • 发布时间:2025-05-26
  • 能源研究咨询公司伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)最新分析指出,到本世纪末,澳大利亚可再生能源发电量预计将达到58%,这一比例远低于联邦政府设定的到2030年将可再生能源在国家能源结构中占比提升至82%的目标。

    澳大利亚政府近期再次当选,其目标是在2030年前实现电网向可再生能源为主的转型,预计未来几十年将有22吉瓦的燃煤发电逐步退出电网。澳大利亚能源市场运营商(AEMO)最新数据显示,太阳能、风能和电池储能系统等可再生能源目前已经为国家主电网提供了43%的电力。

    然而,要实现联邦政府设定的82%可再生能源目标,澳大利亚需投入大量额外的新清洁能源发电和存储容量。市场运营商估算,达成该目标将需要92吉瓦的可再生能源容量,几乎是当前约52吉瓦装机容量的两倍。WoodMac高级分析师Natalie Thompson表示,按照当前进展速度,到本世纪末,澳大利亚的清洁能源份额可能低于60%。她指出:“我们的分析显示,澳大利亚目前预计到2030年只能实现58%的可再生能源发电量。”她还提到,联邦政府的努力可能会因昆士兰州和北领地等州政府取消或缩减其可再生能源目标而变得复杂。

    汤普森强调,这一预测凸显了增加投资和加强各级政府协调以加速能源转型的迫切性。WoodMac预计,到2030年,澳大利亚住宅、商业和工业用途的太阳能容量将从2025年的29吉瓦扩大至46吉瓦。同时,分布式能源存储容量预计在同一时期将增长两倍,而公用事业规模的能源存储容量预计将增长六倍,从2.5吉瓦增至16吉瓦以上。

    WoodMac表示,联邦政府的“容量投资计划”(CIS)推动了公用事业规模可再生能源的增长,该计划旨在加速开发9吉瓦的可调度容量和23吉瓦的可变容量,这是在2021年至2024年期间新增8.4吉瓦公用事业规模太阳能、风能和储能容量的基础上进行的。该分析公司指出,目前约有65吉瓦的项目处于开发过程中,但汤普森表示,挑战依然存在,需要更多支持以确保项目从规划到运营的顺利进行。她指出:“虽然超过65吉瓦的公用事业规模储能项目正处于不同开发阶段,但只有5-10%的已宣布项目可能最终实现融资。持续的政策支持对于克服电网连接和项目规划方面的障碍至关重要。”

  • 原文来源:https://www.nengyuanjie.net/article/114464.html
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    • 编译者:武春亮
    • 发布时间:2024-02-28
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  • 《70%绿电!澳大利亚主电网创下可再生能源新纪录!》

    • 来源专题:能源情报网信息监测服务平台
    • 编译者:guokm
    • 发布时间:2023-09-22
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