Evaluating the impact of international airline suspensions on COVID-19 direct importation risk
Aniruddha Adiga, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Akhil Peddireddy, Alex Telionis, Allan Dickerman, Amanda Wilson, Andrei Bura, Andrew Warren, Anil Vullikanti, Brian D Klahn, Chunhong Mao, Dawen Xie, Dustin Machi, Erin Raymond, Fanchao Meng, Golda Barrow, Hannah Baek, Henning Mortveit, James Schlitt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Jim Walke, Joshua Goldstein, Mark Orr, Przemyslaw Porebski, Richard Beckman, Ron Kenyon, Samarth Swarup, Stefan Hoops, Stephen Eubank, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Chris Barrett
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025882
Abstract
Global airline networks play a key role in the global importation of emerging infectious diseases. Detailed information on air traffic between international airports has been demonstrated to be useful in retrospectively validating and prospectively predicting case emergence in other countries. In this paper, we use a well-established metric known as effective distance on the global air traffic data from IATA to predict COVID-19 times of arrival (ToA) for different countries as a consequence of direct importation from China. Using this model trained on official first reports from WHO, we provide estimated ToA for all other countries. By combining effective distance with a measure for the country's vulnerability (Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI)), we propose a metric to rank vulnerable countries at immediate risk of case emergence. We then incorporate data on airline suspensions to recompute the effective distance and assess the effect of such cancellations in delaying the estimated arrival time for all other countries.
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