登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRxiv，2月18日，Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-19

  • Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data

    Natalie M. Linton, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Yichi Yang, Katsuma Hayashi, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung, Baoyin Yuan, Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.26.20018754

    Abstract

    The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2-14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3-4 days without truncation and at 5-9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.20018754v2
21浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRxiv，2月17日，Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-18
    • Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections Hiroshi Nishiura, Natalie M Linton, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497 Abstract Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n=28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n=18). In addition, we adjusting for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. Results: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). Conclusions: The serial interval of COVID-19 is shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    160浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《MedRixv，2月25日，Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：zhangmin
    • 发布时间：2020-02-26
    • Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020 Shi Zhao, Daozhou Gao, Zian Zhuang, Marc Chong, Yongli Cai, Jinjun Ran, Peihua Cao, Kai Wang, Yijun Lou, Weiming Wang, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie Wang doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026559 Abstract Backgrounds: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong and estimated the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. Methods: Index cases were identified and reported after symptoms onset, and contact tracing was conducted to collect the data of the associated secondary cases. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit a Gamma distribution function to govern the SI of COVID-19. Findings: Assuming a Gamma distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9−6.7) and SD of SI at 3.0 days (95%CI: 1.8−5.8) by using the information of all 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong. Conclusion: The SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are recommended in combating the COVID-19 outbreak. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    67浏览量
    原文链接