登录
 机构网站
  1. 首页
  2. 情报产品
  3. 快讯详情

《MedRxiv，2月18日，Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： xuwenwhlib
  • 发布时间：2020-02-19

  • Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data

    Natalie M. Linton, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Yichi Yang, Katsuma Hayashi, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Sung-mok Jung, Baoyin Yuan, Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.26.20018754

    Abstract

    The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2-14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3-4 days without truncation and at 5-9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.20018754v2
15浏览量
原文链接
相关报告

  • 《MedRxiv，2月17日，Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-18
    • Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections Hiroshi Nishiura, Natalie M Linton, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019497 Abstract Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n=28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n=18). In addition, we adjusting for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. Results: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). Conclusions: The serial interval of COVID-19 is shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    128浏览量
    原文链接

  • 《 MedRxiv，2月18日，When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: a SEIR modeling analysis》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-02-19
    • When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: a SEIR modeling analysis lianglu zhang Sr., kangkang wan Jr., jing chen Sr., changming lu Sr., lanlan dong Jr., zhicheng wu Sr. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023804 Abstract Recent outbreak of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan raised serious public health concerns. By February 15, 2020 in Wuhan, the total number of confirmed infection cases has reached 37,914, and the number of deaths has reached 1123, accounting for 56.9% of the total confirmed cases and 73.7% of the total deaths in China. People are eager to know when the epidemic will be completely controlled and when people's work and life will be on the right track. In this study we analyzed the epidemic dynamics and trend of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan by using the data after the closure of Wuhan city till February 12, 2020 based on the SEIR modeling method. The optimal parameters were estimated as R0=1.44 (interquartile range: 1.40-1.47)，TI=14 (interquartile range: 14-14) and TE=3.0 (interquartile range: 2.8-3.1). Based on these parameters, the number of infected individuals in Wuhan city may reach the peak around February 19 at about 45,000 people. Once entering March, the epidemic would gradually decline, and end around the late March. It is worth noting that the above prediction is based on the assumption that the number of susceptible population N = 200,000 will not increase. If the epidemic situation is not properly controlled, the peak of infected number can be further increased and the peak time will be a little postponed. It was expected that the epidemic would subside in early March, and disappear gradually towards the late March. *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.
    146浏览量
    原文链接