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《MedRxiv，3月10日，A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-11

  • A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China

    Meng Wang, Jingtao Qi

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.08.20032854

    Abstract

    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province,China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities tookunprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading ofthe novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematicalmodel based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolutionof the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimatethe basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 ± 0.11, time between March19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming lessthan one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number ofconfirmed cases approaching 14408 ± 429 on the Chinese mainlandexcluding Hubei province.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20032854v1
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    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-04-05
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