Temporal relationship between outbound traffic from Wuhan and the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) incidence in China
Zaixing Shi, Ya Fang
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20034199
Abstract
Background: The city of Wuhan is the epicenter of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and a central Chinese hub for transportation and industry. Mass migration prior to the Chinese New Year may have accelerated the spread of COVID-19 across China. This analysis investigated the temporal relationship between daily outbound traffic from Wuhan and the incidence of COVID-19 in 31 Chinese provinces during January-February 2020. Methods: We collected incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases from National and Provincial Health Committee reports from January 10 to February 29, 2020. Volume of outbound traffic from Wuhan to other provinces was measured by Baidu Migration Index, a widely used metric that tracks migration based on cellphone location.
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