A Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model for Analyzing SARS-COV-2 Infection Stability and Predicting Uncontrollable Risks
Wenlei Xiao, Qiang Liu, J Huan, Pengpeng Sun, Liuquan Wang, Chenxin Zang, Sanying Zhu, Liansheng Gao
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082
Abstract
Since December 2019, COVID-19 has raged in Wuhan and subsequently all over China and the world. We propose a Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model (CDIM) to the dynamic infection process with a probability distributed incubation delay and feedback principle. Reproductive trends and the stability of the SARS-COV-2 infection in a city can then be analyzed, and the uncontrollable risks can be forecasted before they really happen. The infection mechanism of a city is depicted using the philosophy of cybernetics and approaches of the control engineering.
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