《MedRxiv,3月17日,A Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model for Analyzing SARS-COV-2 Infection Stability and Predicting Uncontrollable Risks》

  • 来源专题:COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者: zhangmin
  • 发布时间:2020-03-18
  • A Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model for Analyzing SARS-COV-2 Infection Stability and Predicting Uncontrollable Risks

    Wenlei Xiao, Qiang Liu, J Huan, Pengpeng Sun, Liuquan Wang, Chenxin Zang, Sanying Zhu, Liansheng Gao

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082

    Abstract

    Since December 2019, COVID-19 has raged in Wuhan and subsequently all over China and the world. We propose a Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model (CDIM) to the dynamic infection process with a probability distributed incubation delay and feedback principle. Reproductive trends and the stability of the SARS-COV-2 infection in a city can then be analyzed, and the uncontrollable risks can be forecasted before they really happen. The infection mechanism of a city is depicted using the philosophy of cybernetics and approaches of the control engineering.

    *注,本文为预印本论文手稿,是未经同行评审的初步报告,其观点仅供科研同行交流,并不是结论性内容,请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082v1
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