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《MedRxiv，3月6日，Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period》

  • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
  • 编译者： zhangmin
  • 发布时间：2020-03-07

  • Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period

    Stephen M Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112

    Abstract

    There is an urgent need to project how transmission of the novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will unfold in coming years. These dynamics will depend on seasonality, the duration of immunity, and the strength of cross-immunity to/from the other human coronaviruses. Using data from the United States, we measured how these factors affect transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. We then built a mathematical model to simulate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the year 2025. We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave. We summarize the full range of plausible transmission scenarios and identify key data still needed to distinguish between them, most importantly longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

    *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用.

  • 原文来源：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1
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  • 《Science，4月14日，Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-04-17
    • Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period Stephen M. Kissler1,*, Christine Tedijanto2,*, Edward Goldstein2, Yonatan H. Grad1,†,‡, Marc Lipsitch2,†,‡ See all authors and affiliations Science 14 Apr 2020: eabb5793 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793 Abstract It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
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  • 《3月6日_哈佛大学预测SARS-CoV-2在疫情后期的传播动态》
    • 来源专题：COVID-19科研动态监测
    • 编译者：xuwenwhlib
    • 发布时间：2020-03-08
    • 3月6日_哈佛大学预测SARS-CoV-2在疫情后期的传播动态 1.时间：2020年3月6日 2.机构或团队：哈佛大学 3.事件概要： 2020年3月6日，medRxiv预印平台上发布了哈佛大学题为“Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period”的文章，研究人员就新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2在未来几年的传播情况进行了预测。 文章称，季节性、SARS-CoV-2免疫持续时间和其他人类冠状病毒对SARS-CoV-2的交叉免疫强度是影响SARS-CoV-2未来传播的重要因素。研究人员开始利用了来自美国的研究数据，检测了这些因素如何影响人类冠状病毒HCoV-OC43和HCoV-HKU1的传播，随后建立了数学模型预测了到2025年之间SARS-CoV-2可能的传播情况。结果显示，若SARS-CoV-2可以在一年中的任何时候增殖，冬季/春季有利于出现持续时间更长、峰值更短的疫情暴发，秋季/冬季有利于出现更严重的暴发；若对SARS-CoV-2没有产生永久的免疫力，SARS-CoV-2很可能像其他大流行性流感一样进入正常的循环模式；若对SARS-CoV-2产生永久免疫力，SARS-CoV-2可能会消失五年或更长时间；若其他人类冠状病毒对SARS-CoV-2的交叉免疫强度较低，可能会使SARS-CoV-2短暂消失，几年后才会重新出现。研究结果表明，对SARS-CoV-2免疫持续时间的确定和流行病学的监控对预测SARS-CoV-2下次暴发有重要作用。 *注，本文为预印本论文手稿，是未经同行评审的初步报告，其观点仅供科研同行交流，并不是结论性内容，请使用者谨慎使用。 4.附件： 原文链接：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1
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